Asia is entering an investment supercycle. According to Morgan Stanley, total investment across the region is forecast to rise from about $11 tn a year today to $16 tn a year by 2030, growth of about 7% annually, driven by spending on AI infrastructure, energy and defence. At the same time, dollar weakness is prompting Asian investors, whose international investment position Morgan Stanley puts at some $46 tn as of 2025, to ask how much of their savings should sit in US assets. India remains largely outside the AI supply chain that is lifting several of its regional peers, even as questions persist over what AI means for its services exports and its longer-term growth trajectory.

In this session, Chetan Ahya will examine why the capex supercycle, more than currency movements, will be the defining story for Indian businesses. He will map where India is gaining from the cycle and where it remains exposed; unpack how America’s rising debt pile might impact the dollar; and explain how hedging behaviour by large Asian holders of US assets is affecting regional currencies, including the rupee.