When conflict reshapes trade, who in the boardroom is actually prepared?
The ceasefire that has suspended the Iran conflict drew a line under months of military escalation but the business implications are far from resolved. The episode exposed just how quickly a regional conflict can disrupt oil flows, freight routes and insurance pricing, and how few firms had the scenario plans to respond quickly. For companies with supply chains that run through or near the Gulf, the question now is not whether such disruptions can happen again, but whether they are better prepared for when they do.
In this session, Adit Jain will open with his reading of the conflict: the short-term shocks that hit firms immediately, the medium-term adjustments now underway and the longer-run scenarios that will play out depending on how key variables (sanctions, oil pricing, regional alignment). He will then moderate a candid conversation with panellists drawn from aviation, chemicals, metals and energy: sectors that sit close to thefire. Voices from logistics and oil, industries that felt the pressure acutely, will also feature in the discussion.
The conversation will push beyond post-mortem analysis. Are firms now treating geopolitical conflict as a material risk, not just a background assumption? Did this episode reveal structural weaknesses in supply chains that have since been addressed or merely flagged? And what does responsible scenario planning look like when the scenarios involve armed conflict in a region that handles a third of the world's seaborne oil?