The global system is moving from rules-based integration to negotiated access — to markets, technology, energy, shipping lanes and security. The base case through 2029 is not global collapse but persistent instability, interrupted by tactical bargains: conflicts remain contained but recurrent, tariffs and sanctions become routine instruments, and security spending competes directly with welfare and investment. Even companies that avoid a full geopolitical rupture will still face the economics of fragmentation — in duplicated supply chains, in political exposure as a balance-sheet variable and in resilience shifting from a contingency plan to a permanent operating model.

In this session, Adit Jain will map the three scenarios most likely to define the world through 2029 — managed disorder, escalating fragmentation and uneasy accommodation — and unpack what each implies for the Middle East, Europe, America and China. He will examine how these forces transmit directly onto Indian corporate balance sheets, from the rupee and energy costs to capital flows and trade, and what it means for how CEOs should reposition their organisations across the cycle.