<p>When China announced its export restrictions on gallium and germanium last year, followed by fresh limits on graphite and a cocktail of rare earth compounds, the world responded with a shrug. But as the true scale of Beijing’s mineral stranglehold becomes evident, nerves are beginning to fray, particularly in capitals with grand manufacturing ambitions. India, keen to establish itself as an alternative to the Middle Kingdom in both electronics and defence, finds itself caught in a vice. Rare earths are the lifeblood of modern technology and crucial in everything from smartphones and semiconductors to missile guidance systems and electric vehicles. China does not just mine them, it also possesses a near-monopoly on their refining. The result is a precarious global dependence, with Beijing holding a knife to the supply chain’s throat. </p><p>India’s discomfort is understandable, with Apple assembling iPhones in Tamil Nadu and various chipmakers sniffing around Gujarat and Maharashtra. The Ministry of Defence, has been pushing indigenous production of drones, radars and precision-guided weaponry. But these ambitions are reliant on parts made elsewhere and often with materials that come, either directly or obliquely, from China. Any kink in that supply web sends ripples across India’s manufacturing aspirations. </p><p><strong>The dragon’s grip</strong> </p><p>China’s control is not accidental. Over decades, it quietly built up mineral processing capacity while other nations flinched at the environmental mess involved. The result is that China now refines around four fifths of the world’s rare earths, leaving others to haggle for scraps. India, to its credit, has spotted the danger. It is pursuing a two-track strategy. The first involves importing less from China and more from friends. Australia has emerged as a key partner, with Indian firms snuffling around lithium and rare earth deposits in the outback. The second is to dig at home. India sits on modest reserves of rare earths, mostly in the coastal sands of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Orissa. But mining is not instant. Processing is trickier still, requiring both capital and chemical prowess. </p><p>Multinationals, meanwhile, are getting jittery. Apple’s plans to diversify away from China hinge on India’s ability to supply not just workers and land, but also components and materials. So far, the latter have lagged. Supply disruptions in rare earths could stall Apple’s pivot. India is not alone in its anxieties. Japan remembers all too well the spat in 2010, when China briefly cut off rare earth exports after a maritime quarrel. Since then, Tokyo has stockpiled, recycled and invested in Vietnamese mines with quiet determination. Europe, chastened by its dependence on Russian gas, has awakened to its own mineral vulnerabilities, though Brussels remains long on ambition and short on action. America has taken a more muscular approach, pouring money into domestic rare earth processing. China’s mineral brinkmanship has lit a fire under global supply chains. </p><p>For India, the mineral squeeze is both a challenge and an invitation. It exposes the fragility of its current industrial ecosystem, but also pushes the country to confront long-ignored realities. Minerals, like energy, are a strategic asset. Their security cannot be outsourced. Yet India’s success will depend not only on mining more or importing smarter. It must build refining capacity, encourage metallurgical innovation and nurture companies willing to get their hands dirty. Environmental clearances must be swift. Regulation must not be suffocating. Above all, the state must accept that mineral security is as central to sovereignty as missile silos or naval fleets.</p>
<p>When China announced its export restrictions on gallium and germanium last year, followed by fresh limits on graphite and a cocktail of rare earth compounds, the world responded with a shrug. But as the true scale of Beijing’s mineral stranglehold becomes evident, nerves are beginning to fray, particularly in capitals with grand manufacturing ambitions. India, keen to establish itself as an alternative to the Middle Kingdom in both electronics and defence, finds itself caught in a vice. Rare earths are the lifeblood of modern technology and crucial in everything from smartphones and semiconductors to missile guidance systems and electric vehicles. China does not just mine them, it also possesses a near-monopoly on their refining. The result is a precarious global dependence, with Beijing holding a knife to the supply chain’s throat. </p><p>India’s discomfort is understandable, with Apple assembling iPhones in Tamil Nadu and various chipmakers sniffing around Gujarat and Maharashtra. The Ministry of Defence, has been pushing indigenous production of drones, radars and precision-guided weaponry. But these ambitions are reliant on parts made elsewhere and often with materials that come, either directly or obliquely, from China. Any kink in that supply web sends ripples across India’s manufacturing aspirations. </p><p><strong>The dragon’s grip</strong> </p><p>China’s control is not accidental. Over decades, it quietly built up mineral processing capacity while other nations flinched at the environmental mess involved. The result is that China now refines around four fifths of the world’s rare earths, leaving others to haggle for scraps. India, to its credit, has spotted the danger. It is pursuing a two-track strategy. The first involves importing less from China and more from friends. Australia has emerged as a key partner, with Indian firms snuffling around lithium and rare earth deposits in the outback. The second is to dig at home. India sits on modest reserves of rare earths, mostly in the coastal sands of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Orissa. But mining is not instant. Processing is trickier still, requiring both capital and chemical prowess. </p><p>Multinationals, meanwhile, are getting jittery. Apple’s plans to diversify away from China hinge on India’s ability to supply not just workers and land, but also components and materials. So far, the latter have lagged. Supply disruptions in rare earths could stall Apple’s pivot. India is not alone in its anxieties. Japan remembers all too well the spat in 2010, when China briefly cut off rare earth exports after a maritime quarrel. Since then, Tokyo has stockpiled, recycled and invested in Vietnamese mines with quiet determination. Europe, chastened by its dependence on Russian gas, has awakened to its own mineral vulnerabilities, though Brussels remains long on ambition and short on action. America has taken a more muscular approach, pouring money into domestic rare earth processing. China’s mineral brinkmanship has lit a fire under global supply chains. </p><p>For India, the mineral squeeze is both a challenge and an invitation. It exposes the fragility of its current industrial ecosystem, but also pushes the country to confront long-ignored realities. Minerals, like energy, are a strategic asset. Their security cannot be outsourced. Yet India’s success will depend not only on mining more or importing smarter. It must build refining capacity, encourage metallurgical innovation and nurture companies willing to get their hands dirty. Environmental clearances must be swift. Regulation must not be suffocating. Above all, the state must accept that mineral security is as central to sovereignty as missile silos or naval fleets.</p>
