The Pulse of Indian Politics

Politicians and political parties are gearing up for state elections in 2023, which many believe will set the tone for the 2024 general elections. The odds of Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning a third consecutive term are high. Ergo, the BJP will have another term to pass pending legislation, introduce new policies and implement its vision for India. At a recent joint session of the India CEO and CFO Forums, Jyoti Malhotra, National and Strategic Affairs Editor at The Print, provided her journalistic insights on the current political dynamics at play in India. This paper captures the highlights from the session and the ensuing discussion.

Establishing the Arena 9 state elections will be held in 2023, beginning with 3 North-eastern states and ending with bigger ones like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan towards the end. The results should give some indication of what to expect in 2024, particularly since some of these states voted in favour of the opposition before flipping back to the BJP in the last few years.

Looking to next year, while a Narendra Modi victory is likely, a loss of seats by the BJP is near-certain. Regional parties will continue to pose a stiff challenge in states such as Tamil Nadu but the fractured nature of opposition at the national level means that it will be all but impossible to defeat Mr Modi. What remains to be seen is the margin by which the BJP wins. On a related note, if it is unable to secure an outright majority, what might be the possible permutations of the next ruling coalition? Clearly, the BJP’s national success relies heavily on Mr Modi’s popularity but looking to the future, does the party have a succession plan in place? Will the successor be able to match his charisma and influence?

As the only national party comparable to it in size and presence, the Congress is, de facto , the BJP’s principal opponent. However, it has been down on its luck for several years and has seen considerable internal strife. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra began as a promising mass-mobilisation movement to drum up support ahead of elections. Yet, unless there is follow-up action, any momentum that may have been gained from it is likely to fizzle out. For one, in Karnataka, where the Congress genuinely stands a chance, a weak strategy could be its undoing.

The Incumbent Juggernaut Anti-incumbency is often a key factor in elections but with regard to 2024, its role may be limited to influencing only the number of seats the BJP wins. The fact that the party is perpetually in ‘election mode’ may allow it to anticipate and offset the impact of anti-incumbent sentiment. The BJP’s main strengths are its ambition and willingness to do anything to win. The fact that it receives ~90% of all electoral bonds is another factor in its favour, funding its extensive campaigning on a national scale.

A Policy Review Covid-19 has overshadowed other issues for much of Mr Modi’s second term. In general, Indian politics is criticised for being driven by ‘freebies’ – handouts promised in exchange for votes. However, in the wake of the pandemic, the government not only continued but expanded the distribution of free or heavily-subsidised foodgrains. Given the high incidence of poverty and malnourishment, such measures can, at least in the short-term, be defended as being more ‘developmental’ than ‘populist.’

The last few years have seen notable highs (India’s strong response to Covid) as well as lows (widespread protests around the CAA/NRC and farm laws). Settling aside the specifics of the farm laws, a major reason for the agitation was the top-down approach adopted. A lack of consultation led to a point where influential regional parties like the Shiromani Akali Dal, a long time BJP ally, made the law feel like an imposition from the Central government. It may have been more effective to explain the benefits of the laws more clearly to citizens and perhaps even to launch a pilot programme, which would have helped ease people into the idea. Similarly, the Agnipath scheme for recruitment into the armed-forces, though a noble initiative, did not come out of public consultation, and was not even communicated to the media before its introduction.

On Judicial Reform… The National Judicial Commission Bill will test how far the judiciary will go to retain its independence, and whether the Supreme Court (and the judiciary more generally) will ever give up their right to appoint judges. Earlier, the National Judicial Appointments Committee (NJAC) was struck down by the Supreme Court in a 4-1 verdict. The timing is important, given that a lack of transparency in the Collegium has been a long-running complaint. The fact that the Vice President, who holds a non-elected constitutional post, has suggested changes to the basic structure of the judiciary has raised eyebrows, as has the timing of the comments. In all likelihood, this stems, at least in part, from fears that the 2024 elections may not yield a clear winner, in which case the Supreme Court may have to intervene.

…And The Fourth Estate The media’s job is to keep those in power accountable for their actions. The last few years have seen a marked rise in political polarisation, which is evident in any piece of media we consume. However, the current climate of hostility is also due to a breakdown in the relationship between government and opposition, for which no single party can be held responsible. If politics is broken, this inevitably gets reflected in media coverage. Looking ahead, the social media will remain a key polarising factor in the forthcoming elections, but the role of legacy media cannot be replaced. Regional papers did a brilliant job, for instance, of covering the on-ground situation during the pandemic. In fact, many of the stories that came to light, resonated with common people and ultimately made their way to the English press, originated not from social media but from vernacular sources.