<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ul><li><p>The global system has entered an era of sustained disruption, marked by successive shocks since 2020 that have blurred the boundary between geopolitics and economics, turning political decisions into immediate commercial outcomes.</p></li><li><p>India now operates in a world where trade, migration and technology are increasingly shaped by strategic calculation, with major powers recalibrating policies around domestic priorities rather than global consensus.</p></li><li><p>Economic security has broadened beyond growth and market size to include access, predictability and resilience, particularly in trade, supply chains and international mobility.</p></li><li><p>Energy security remains central to India’s growth, as global supply disruptions, sanctions regimes and competition over resources reinforce the importance of diversification and long-term planning.</p></li><li><p>Regional stability has acquired renewed importance, with developments in India’s neighbourhood directly intersecting with economic outcomes and placing greater responsibility on India as a stabilising force.</p></li><li><p>At the global level, traditional multilateral institutions face strain, while alternative groupings and arrangements are emerging, requiring greater flexibility and realism in engagement.</p></li><li><p>Strategic autonomy continues to be a guiding principle, shaped by geography and national interest, demanding balance rather than alignment in an increasingly transactional world.</p></li><li><p>India’s long-term credibility rests on coherence between domestic strengths and external engagement, including democratic institutions, pluralism, rule-based traditions and technological capability.</p></li><li><p>The central challenge ahead is not to restore an earlier equilibrium, but to operate effectively in a more fragmented, competitive and less forgiving international environment. </p></li></ul>.<p>This paper draws on a closed-door session hosted by IMA in Bombay on Tuesday, 22 January 2026, featuring Suhasini Haidar, Diplomatic Editor of The Hindu. Widely regarded as one of India’s most authoritative interpreters of foreign policy, Ms Haidar has followed Indian diplomacy across multiple administrations, with particular attention to geopolitics, strategic autonomy, the interface between global power shifts and domestic economic outcomes. Her address explored India’s foreign policy at a moment when the global order itself is being reworked and when economics and security have become inseparable.</p><p>The world confronting India today bears little resemblance to that of even the recent past. Since 2020, a succession of shocks has steadily eroded assumptions about stability and trade. Developments along India’s northern borders underscored the tight linkage between security and economic interdependence. The Russia-Ukraine conflict sent shockwaves through fuel and fertiliser markets, illustrating how geopolitical events now transmit rapidly into economic headaches. In West Asia, instability disrupted expectations around long-term trade corridors. Even brief regional crises have shown how quickly political uncertainty can sap tourism and investment. These developments point to a structural shift rather than a temporary disturbance. Political decisions carry commercial consequences, while economic relationships are shaped by strategic calculation. A central theme of the discussion was the evolution of United States policy and its global implications. The approach associated with President Donald Trump reflects deeper domestic debates in the United States over trade, migration and industrial policy. These trends indicate a longer recalibration.</p><p>For India, this environment demands adjustment. Trade policy has become transactional and migration regimes across advanced economies are being reassessed. Technological change, particularly in artificial intelligence, is reshaping how nations think about labour and competitiveness. These shifts are unfolding simultaneously. Several interrelated dimensions stand out for India’s foreign policy. Economic security now depends not only on growth and market size, but on access and predictability. Changes in international mobility underline the need to align domestic job creation and skill development with evolving global realities. Energy security remains central to India’s growth trajectory. Global supply disruptions and competition over resources reinforce the importance of diversification. At the same time, transitions towards renewable energy, critical minerals and emerging technologies are reshaping interdependence.</p><p>Regional security has also gained renewed prominence. Developments in India’s immediate neighbourhood now intersect with economic outcomes. As external powers lose interest in our region, India’s role in supporting stability assumes greater weight. At the global level, established institutions are under strain, while alternative groupings are being explored. India’s economic scale and demographic strength remain significant assets. Still, expectations of automatic alignment have given way to a more realistic assessment of interests. This shift does not weaken India’s position but it strengthens the case for realism. Against this backdrop, several directions emerge. First, diversifying partnerships and second, a broader engagement across regions. Strategic autonomy remains a guiding principle, shaped by national interest. Coherence between domestic strengths and external engagement is equally important. India’s global credibility continues to rest on its democratic institutions, pluralism and rule-based traditions. At the same time, technology and innovation will shape future influence, while early participation in emerging technology governance standards is prudent. Regional cooperation offers practical dividends. India’s foreign policy is therefore navigating a period of systemic transition rather than episodic disruption. The task is not to restore an earlier equilibrium, but to operate effectively in a world that is more fragmented, more competitive and less forgiving.</p>
<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ul><li><p>The global system has entered an era of sustained disruption, marked by successive shocks since 2020 that have blurred the boundary between geopolitics and economics, turning political decisions into immediate commercial outcomes.</p></li><li><p>India now operates in a world where trade, migration and technology are increasingly shaped by strategic calculation, with major powers recalibrating policies around domestic priorities rather than global consensus.</p></li><li><p>Economic security has broadened beyond growth and market size to include access, predictability and resilience, particularly in trade, supply chains and international mobility.</p></li><li><p>Energy security remains central to India’s growth, as global supply disruptions, sanctions regimes and competition over resources reinforce the importance of diversification and long-term planning.</p></li><li><p>Regional stability has acquired renewed importance, with developments in India’s neighbourhood directly intersecting with economic outcomes and placing greater responsibility on India as a stabilising force.</p></li><li><p>At the global level, traditional multilateral institutions face strain, while alternative groupings and arrangements are emerging, requiring greater flexibility and realism in engagement.</p></li><li><p>Strategic autonomy continues to be a guiding principle, shaped by geography and national interest, demanding balance rather than alignment in an increasingly transactional world.</p></li><li><p>India’s long-term credibility rests on coherence between domestic strengths and external engagement, including democratic institutions, pluralism, rule-based traditions and technological capability.</p></li><li><p>The central challenge ahead is not to restore an earlier equilibrium, but to operate effectively in a more fragmented, competitive and less forgiving international environment. </p></li></ul>.<p>This paper draws on a closed-door session hosted by IMA in Bombay on Tuesday, 22 January 2026, featuring Suhasini Haidar, Diplomatic Editor of The Hindu. Widely regarded as one of India’s most authoritative interpreters of foreign policy, Ms Haidar has followed Indian diplomacy across multiple administrations, with particular attention to geopolitics, strategic autonomy, the interface between global power shifts and domestic economic outcomes. Her address explored India’s foreign policy at a moment when the global order itself is being reworked and when economics and security have become inseparable.</p><p>The world confronting India today bears little resemblance to that of even the recent past. Since 2020, a succession of shocks has steadily eroded assumptions about stability and trade. Developments along India’s northern borders underscored the tight linkage between security and economic interdependence. The Russia-Ukraine conflict sent shockwaves through fuel and fertiliser markets, illustrating how geopolitical events now transmit rapidly into economic headaches. In West Asia, instability disrupted expectations around long-term trade corridors. Even brief regional crises have shown how quickly political uncertainty can sap tourism and investment. These developments point to a structural shift rather than a temporary disturbance. Political decisions carry commercial consequences, while economic relationships are shaped by strategic calculation. A central theme of the discussion was the evolution of United States policy and its global implications. The approach associated with President Donald Trump reflects deeper domestic debates in the United States over trade, migration and industrial policy. These trends indicate a longer recalibration.</p><p>For India, this environment demands adjustment. Trade policy has become transactional and migration regimes across advanced economies are being reassessed. Technological change, particularly in artificial intelligence, is reshaping how nations think about labour and competitiveness. These shifts are unfolding simultaneously. Several interrelated dimensions stand out for India’s foreign policy. Economic security now depends not only on growth and market size, but on access and predictability. Changes in international mobility underline the need to align domestic job creation and skill development with evolving global realities. Energy security remains central to India’s growth trajectory. Global supply disruptions and competition over resources reinforce the importance of diversification. At the same time, transitions towards renewable energy, critical minerals and emerging technologies are reshaping interdependence.</p><p>Regional security has also gained renewed prominence. Developments in India’s immediate neighbourhood now intersect with economic outcomes. As external powers lose interest in our region, India’s role in supporting stability assumes greater weight. At the global level, established institutions are under strain, while alternative groupings are being explored. India’s economic scale and demographic strength remain significant assets. Still, expectations of automatic alignment have given way to a more realistic assessment of interests. This shift does not weaken India’s position but it strengthens the case for realism. Against this backdrop, several directions emerge. First, diversifying partnerships and second, a broader engagement across regions. Strategic autonomy remains a guiding principle, shaped by national interest. Coherence between domestic strengths and external engagement is equally important. India’s global credibility continues to rest on its democratic institutions, pluralism and rule-based traditions. At the same time, technology and innovation will shape future influence, while early participation in emerging technology governance standards is prudent. Regional cooperation offers practical dividends. India’s foreign policy is therefore navigating a period of systemic transition rather than episodic disruption. The task is not to restore an earlier equilibrium, but to operate effectively in a world that is more fragmented, more competitive and less forgiving.</p>
