Geopolitics and Businesses: Making Sense of the Landscape

The world today feels restless. Decisions that once unfolded slowly are now made in hours. Old anchors of certainty, such as multilateral institutions, trade norms and even the idea of predictable policy, feel less reliable than before. This is not an abstract observation; it has a direct bearing on how companies plan, invest, procure, hire and compete. Every organisation, whether large or small, is learning to live with the same background noise, i.e. ‘unpredictability.’ At a recent India Policy Forum session in New Delhi, Yashvardhan Kumar Sinha discussed how to build organisational capacity for geopolitical foresight and integrate these insights into the core corporate affairs function. Drawing from his unique diplomatic vantage point, he outlined how corporate affairs leaders can decode the current landscape and build resilient strategies.

A World Order Losing its Shape

For decades, the global system seemed broadly stable. Conflicts happened, markets rose and fell, but there was a general belief that countries were becoming more connected and interdependent. That sense of direction has weakened. Institutions that once signalled order continue to function, but their influence has faded. The United Nations still convenes, but the most important decisions are increasingly taken outside its walls. The shift is not dramatic enough to call it an ending, but the feeling is unmistakable: the world is no longer organised in the way it used to be.

Power, Personality and Transaction

International relations have become distinctly transactional. Countries still speak of values, but actions are guided almost entirely by narrow definitions of ‘national advantage’. Tariffs, sanctions and export controls are used with far greater frequency than before. What was once taboo, like using supply chains or payment systems as instruments of pressure, has been normalised. Companies and governments alike find that they must constantly calculate who needs whom and who holds leverage today. The US remains powerful, but its internal divisions colour its international behaviour, making it more unpredictable than before. Policies can reflect personalities and domestic needs as much as long-term strategy.

When Two Powers Collide

The Sino-US relationship sits at the heart of this transformation. China no longer hides its ambitions, and the US no longer pretends to be relaxed about them. The dynamic resembles a historical pattern: a rising power meets an established one. Conflict is not inevitable, but collision is nearly impossible to avoid. China controls critical minerals, manufacturing capacity and logistics networks. The US retains its military superiority and remains a force in technology, finance and diplomacy. Each sees the other not only as a competitor but as a strategic obstacle. Their contest shapes and will continue to shape the choices available to every other nation.

India’s Position in a Fragmented World

India occupies a complicated space. It is not a bystander, but nor is it one of the two dominant powers. Its approach has evolved into one of multi-alignment. India participates in the Quad and the G20, but also in BRICS and the SCO. Rather than reflecting indecision, this is a conscious attempt to preserve strategic room to manoeuvre. National interest is the guiding lens, as it is for any other nation, but for India, the definition of ‘national interest’ is not ideological but practical. It revolves around growth, stability, access to technology, and an environment where it can pursue its ambitions without being forced to adopt other nations’ strategies.

Energy dependence: A hard reality

Energy remains one of India’s biggest vulnerabilities. More than 80% of India’s oil is imported, though the precise source of that oil shifts constantly, based on price and politics. One of the ironies of the current Russia oil trade is that crude bought from Russia and refined in India, often returns to markets in Europe and North America. Global supply chains have a logic of their own, even when political rhetoric runs in the opposite direction. There is broad understanding that diversification and renewable energy must grow, but nothing can replace imported oil overnight. Real energy security will take time, investment and careful planning to achieve.

The pursuit of self-reliance

The ambition of becoming more self-reliant is a national priority. Some areas show encouraging results: India’s defence exports have grown, its digital infrastructure has expanded, and its manufacturing incentives have sparked investment. Yet progress towards self-reliance remains uneven. Certain sectors, particularly medical devices and advanced electronics, remain heavily dependent on imports. Regulations designed to encourage local production can sometimes themselves become obstacles. Thus, while the idea of self-reliance is compelling, it must be phased and grounded in realistic capability.

A complex relationship with China

India’s economic relationship with China is both necessary and uncomfortable. Critical components, machinery and technical expertise still come from China, especially in the pharmaceutical, electronics and manufacturing sectors. While this dependency does not align with India’s strategic caution, it cannot be severed abruptly. The broader aim is not isolation, but balance. India is unlikely to replicate China’s trajectory, nor will global politics easily permit it. India must find its own path, which is slower, more decentralised, more democratic, but potentially more durable.

Capital, confidence and momentum

Investment flows reflect the current mood of the world. Foreign capital has become more cautious and the exuberance of earlier years has dimmed. This is not unique to India, but part of a global pattern. Yet domestic investment has also been tentative. Large businesses with strong balance sheets are not deploying capital at the pace that would normally accompany high growth and optimism. The risk is not immediate crisis, but lost opportunity. Confidence matters and confidence can weaken silently if not recognised.

Centralisation and delivery

India’s administrative model combines centralised decision-making with decentralised execution. The advantages of this approach are speed and intent; the risks lie in implementation. Policies created at the centre can sometimes overlook detail, particularly in sectors that require technical expertise and long lead times, such as mining and critical minerals. Outcomes depend not just on ambition, but on coordination across ministries, regulators and industry.

The quiet power of economic diplomacy

Indian missions abroad carry a rising economic mandate. Their work is no longer limited to protocol. Market access, partnerships, supply agreements, technology transfer, and the nurturing of smaller enterprises are all now part of their role. Success is often quiet and specific: a trade opportunity opened, a supply chain stabilised, or a life-saving service established. These instances demonstrate that diplomacy is not abstract; it often depends on initiative, persistence and relationships.

Preparing for a Brave New World

The world is undergoing deep structural change. The old order has not disappeared, but it has lost its shape. Nations and companies alike operate in an environment of entanglement, where politics and economics are woven tightly together. For India, this moment contains both opportunity and risk. Strategic autonomy must be preserved, energy diversified and domestic capability strengthened. There is no simple formula for navigating the years ahead, but a few principles stand out: awareness, adaptability and a persistent focus on national interest. The future may be uncertain, but it remains open to those prepared to engage with it actively, intelligently and with confidence.