<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ul><li><p>According to the latest <strong>DHL Global Connectedness Index</strong>, global connectedness reached a record high in 2022 and remained close to that level in 2023.</p></li><li><p>The resilience of international goods, capital, information and people flows rebuts the notion that <strong>globalisation is on the decline</strong>.</p></li><li><p>The global flow of information has increased more than all aspects of globalisation, but this trend is stalling due to a <strong>rise in US-China tensions</strong>, which has restricted collaborations and imposition of restrictions on data flow.</p></li><li><p><strong>US-China ties</strong> continue to diminish, with the goods trade declining by 25% since 2016, while Russia and Europe have mostly decoupled.</p></li><li><p>Its strong growth prospects, ripe domestic market and skilled labour force make India a <strong>lucrative investments destination</strong>.</p></li><li><p>India is currently the <strong>single-largest largest trading partner</strong> for 10 countries, including Bangladesh and the UAE.</p></li></ul>.<p>The world has seen unprecedented disruption in the past few years, with the Covid-19 pandemic, wars in Gaza and Ukraine, a US-China trade war and the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. These events, coupled with a steady ratcheting up of geopolitical tensions, has led many to argue that globalisation is reversing. However, at a recent joint session of the India CEO and CFO Forums in Delhi, John Person, Global CEO of DHL Express and Steven A Altman, Senior Research Scholar at the Stern School of Business, NYU, argued the opposite. Unveiling the 2024 edition of the DHL Global Connectedness Index<sup><a href="about:blank#_ftn1">[1]</a></sup> (GCI) report, they demonstrated how the interflow of goods, people, capital and knowledge within and between nations matters more than ever, and how companies can manage complex scenarios and take advantage of opportunities that lie ahead.</p>.<h2>Globalisation: At a Record High</h2><p>According to the GCI report, global connectedness reached a record high in 2022 and remained close to that level in 2023. Despite recent global crises, the resilience and expansion of four key aspects of globalisation – trade, capital, information and people flows – challenge the idea that globalisation is in retreat. Information flows, strengthened by digitalisation and the proliferation of the internet, has touched new highs. Capital flows come next, driven by significant greenfield investments. Trade flows follow, supported by robust merchandise trade volumes, rising commodity prices and a recovery in services exports. Overall, DHL’s composite index currently stands at 25% – close to its highest ever, but with considerable room for the world to become even more interconnected.</p>.<h2>Is the World Fracturing into Rival Blocs?</h2><p>Concerns over a potential new Cold War between the US and China have intensified since 2022. Trade between the two nations has declined by 25% since 2016. Russia, aligned with China, has significantly decoupled from the global economy following its invasion of Ukraine and the resultant Western sanctions. However, the share of trade <em>between</em> the world’s two rival blocs, led by the US and China, respectively, is in line with historical trends. After surging during the pandemic, when Asian (especially Chinese) goods exports boomed, inter-bloc trade has reverted to pre-pandemic levels. This indicated that a full-scale division in global trade between the blocs has not (yet) occurred.</p>.<h2>Is There a Trend Towards Regionalisation?</h2><p>Heightened supply chain uncertainties during the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have sparked significant interest in nearshoring. This interest is reflected in a slight decrease in the average distance travelled by the goods trade in 2023, especially in North America. However, it would be premature to interpret this as conclusive evidence of a shift towards more regionalised trade. Recent data indicates that most international flows remain stable across long distances, with a decreasing proportion occurring within major geographic regions. As a result, predictions about increased regionalisation have not yet materialised.</p>.<h2>India: Crucial for Corporate Plans</h2><p>A rapid expansion in international flows involving India has push up the country’s share of the world’s aggregated ‘connectivity’, establishing it as a crucial business partner for many nations. Many businesses are today prioritising India in their expansion strategies, driven by its strong growth prospects as well as a general push to diversify supply chains (i.e., through ‘China + 1’ strategies). An expanding domestic market and the availability of a skilled labour force contribute to India’s investment attractiveness. Currently, India ranks among the top 10 partners for combined trade, capital, information and people flows with 60 countries. India holds the position of largest global-flow partner for 10 countries, including such economies as Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates. As India continues its growth trajectory, it is poised to become a pivotal partner for an expanding circle of nations.</p>
<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ul><li><p>According to the latest <strong>DHL Global Connectedness Index</strong>, global connectedness reached a record high in 2022 and remained close to that level in 2023.</p></li><li><p>The resilience of international goods, capital, information and people flows rebuts the notion that <strong>globalisation is on the decline</strong>.</p></li><li><p>The global flow of information has increased more than all aspects of globalisation, but this trend is stalling due to a <strong>rise in US-China tensions</strong>, which has restricted collaborations and imposition of restrictions on data flow.</p></li><li><p><strong>US-China ties</strong> continue to diminish, with the goods trade declining by 25% since 2016, while Russia and Europe have mostly decoupled.</p></li><li><p>Its strong growth prospects, ripe domestic market and skilled labour force make India a <strong>lucrative investments destination</strong>.</p></li><li><p>India is currently the <strong>single-largest largest trading partner</strong> for 10 countries, including Bangladesh and the UAE.</p></li></ul>.<p>The world has seen unprecedented disruption in the past few years, with the Covid-19 pandemic, wars in Gaza and Ukraine, a US-China trade war and the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. These events, coupled with a steady ratcheting up of geopolitical tensions, has led many to argue that globalisation is reversing. However, at a recent joint session of the India CEO and CFO Forums in Delhi, John Person, Global CEO of DHL Express and Steven A Altman, Senior Research Scholar at the Stern School of Business, NYU, argued the opposite. Unveiling the 2024 edition of the DHL Global Connectedness Index<sup><a href="about:blank#_ftn1">[1]</a></sup> (GCI) report, they demonstrated how the interflow of goods, people, capital and knowledge within and between nations matters more than ever, and how companies can manage complex scenarios and take advantage of opportunities that lie ahead.</p>.<h2>Globalisation: At a Record High</h2><p>According to the GCI report, global connectedness reached a record high in 2022 and remained close to that level in 2023. Despite recent global crises, the resilience and expansion of four key aspects of globalisation – trade, capital, information and people flows – challenge the idea that globalisation is in retreat. Information flows, strengthened by digitalisation and the proliferation of the internet, has touched new highs. Capital flows come next, driven by significant greenfield investments. Trade flows follow, supported by robust merchandise trade volumes, rising commodity prices and a recovery in services exports. Overall, DHL’s composite index currently stands at 25% – close to its highest ever, but with considerable room for the world to become even more interconnected.</p>.<h2>Is the World Fracturing into Rival Blocs?</h2><p>Concerns over a potential new Cold War between the US and China have intensified since 2022. Trade between the two nations has declined by 25% since 2016. Russia, aligned with China, has significantly decoupled from the global economy following its invasion of Ukraine and the resultant Western sanctions. However, the share of trade <em>between</em> the world’s two rival blocs, led by the US and China, respectively, is in line with historical trends. After surging during the pandemic, when Asian (especially Chinese) goods exports boomed, inter-bloc trade has reverted to pre-pandemic levels. This indicated that a full-scale division in global trade between the blocs has not (yet) occurred.</p>.<h2>Is There a Trend Towards Regionalisation?</h2><p>Heightened supply chain uncertainties during the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have sparked significant interest in nearshoring. This interest is reflected in a slight decrease in the average distance travelled by the goods trade in 2023, especially in North America. However, it would be premature to interpret this as conclusive evidence of a shift towards more regionalised trade. Recent data indicates that most international flows remain stable across long distances, with a decreasing proportion occurring within major geographic regions. As a result, predictions about increased regionalisation have not yet materialised.</p>.<h2>India: Crucial for Corporate Plans</h2><p>A rapid expansion in international flows involving India has push up the country’s share of the world’s aggregated ‘connectivity’, establishing it as a crucial business partner for many nations. Many businesses are today prioritising India in their expansion strategies, driven by its strong growth prospects as well as a general push to diversify supply chains (i.e., through ‘China + 1’ strategies). An expanding domestic market and the availability of a skilled labour force contribute to India’s investment attractiveness. Currently, India ranks among the top 10 partners for combined trade, capital, information and people flows with 60 countries. India holds the position of largest global-flow partner for 10 countries, including such economies as Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates. As India continues its growth trajectory, it is poised to become a pivotal partner for an expanding circle of nations.</p>
